聋人高等融合教育的学习支持服务探究

聋人高等融合教育有利于构建"宽容、无差异"的校园文化与"平等、融合"的社会环境,有助于聋人融入主流社会。融合教育的实施需要完善的支持系统,在分析我国聋人高等融合教育现状的基础上,从学校角度探讨了无障碍学习环境、差异化教学、人员保障方面的学习支持服务,以期为聋人高等融合教育的发展提供借鉴。     

Model averaging estimation for conditional volatility models with an application to stock market volatility forecast

This paper is concerned with model averaging estimation for conditional volatility models. Given a set of candidate models with different functional forms, we propose a model averaging estimator and forecast for conditional volatility, and construct the corresponding weight-choosing criterion. Under some regulatory conditions, we show that the weight selected by the criterion asymptotically minimizes the true Kullback–Leibler divergence, which is the distributional approximation error, as well as the Itakura–Saito distance, which is the distance between the true and estimated or forecast conditional volatility. Monte Carlo experiments support our newly proposed method. As for the empirical applications of our method, we investigate a total of nine major stock market indices and make a 1-day-ahead volatility forecast for each data set. Empirical results show that the model averaging forecast achieves the highest accuracy in terms of all types of loss functions in most cases, which captures the movement of the unknown true conditional volatility.     

Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short-term and long-term effects

This paper introduces a novel generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed data sampling–extreme shocks (GARCH-MIDAS-ES) model for stock volatility to examine whether the importance of extreme shocks changes in different time ranges. Based on different combinations of the short- and long-term effects caused by extreme events, we extend the standard GARCH-MIDAS model to characterize the different responses of the stock market for short- and long-term horizons, separately or in combination. The unique timespan of nearly 100 years of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) daily returns allows us to understand the stock market volatility under extreme shocks from a historical perspective. The in-sample empirical results clearly show that the DJIA stock volatility is best fitted to the GARCH-MIDAS-SLES model by including the short- and long-term impacts of extreme shocks for all forecasting horizons. The out-of-sample results and robustness tests emphasize the significance of decomposing the effect of extreme shocks into short- and long-term effects to improve the accuracy of the DJIA volatility forecasts.     

长江经济带消费潜力时空分异及类型划分

目前中国正处于经济转型的重要时刻,扩大国内需求,释放消费潜力成为保证经济平稳发展的关键变量.本文利用城镇收入-消费差作为测度指标表示消费潜力,采用变差系数、空间自相关等空间数据研究方法,分析2000—2018年以来长江经济带消费潜力的时空演化格局以及地域类型划分来反映未来消费的热点地区.结果显示:(1)2000—2008年期间长江经济带消费潜力差异是处于波动的状态,到2008年之后各城市之间的消费潜力差异逐渐减小.(2)2000—2018年消费潜力冷热点的空间集聚都具有明显的异质性,消费热点区集中在长三角城市群,冷点区集中在长江中游地区并有扩散趋势.(3)消费潜力出现西低东高的空间分布状态,其总体范围逐渐扩大.由于较高潜力地区的城市数量增加,较低潜力地区与低潜力地区由最初的集聚变成"碎片式"城市分布,因此消费内在潜力进一步扩大.(4)通过潜力的地域类型划分发现高速增长区有成都、长沙等城市,这些城市成长速度和经济发展较快,可以更快带动消费的增长;同时中下游的二三线城市大多属于中速增长区.从地理学角度研究经济学消费的时空演化特征和类型划分,了解未来长江经济带消费潜力可以进一步释放城市消费空间,可为后续研究消费影响因素作一定的铺垫.     

碱激发矿粉-膨润土竖向阻隔屏障在某风险阻控工程中的应用

以某在产农药厂污染场地风险阻控工程为依托,通过三级搅拌工艺制备屏障材料,并利用高压旋喷注浆法和深层搅拌法施工工艺建造周长659m、深度25m的活性氧化镁激发矿粉-膨润土系竖向阻隔屏障(MSB),实现了MSB材料在国内的工程应用.对施工后屏障进行取样,采用芯样表观特征分析、室内无侧限抗压强度和刚性壁渗透试验分析2种施工工艺、屏障深度和工后时间对屏障无侧限抗压强度qu和渗透系数k的影响.结果表明:2种施工工艺均实现了材料沿深度的均匀搅拌,屏障完整性较好;工后40～70d,qu可达1.6-2.6MPa,qu随工后时间增加呈增长趋势;自来水渗透作用下屏障k为4.5×10-8～9.0×10-8cm/s,k随深度变化不明显.     

考虑碳排放和非均衡竞争环境的供应链策略

针对企业面临资金约束和碳减排的双重压力,从供应商的横向非均衡竞争出发,考虑价格和碳减排的双敏感需求特征,建立零售商主导的Stackelberg博弈模型,给出不同竞争状态下均衡决策.探究企业异质性特征传递带来的连锁反应,刻画生产成本、碳减排效率和资金水平对供应链成员决策的作用机理,并验证零售商的定价策略及合作供应商选择策略.研究发现,供应商较低的生产成本可激励其加大减排力度,实现利润增长,碳减排效率优化则通过高减排投入助供应商拓展市场以获得竞争优势,而资金环境改善对供应商的影响取决于其原资金约束程度.从零售商视角,应选择与水平相近的2个竞争供应商同时合作,并制定差异化定价策略.     

基于BIM技术的室内照明仿真模拟软件计算精度解析

建筑照明专业参与BIM （building information modeling）技术的同平台作业还处于起步阶段。DIALux evo 8.2和ElumTools 2019.07是目前仅有的参与BIM技术的室内照明仿真模拟软件。采用CIE （Commission Internationale de i''Eclairage）发布的CIE 171：2006—test cases to assess the accuracy of lighting computer programs的5.2至5.8测试用例，通过验证这2款软件的计算精度，分析得出软件性能的优缺点。结果表明：在计算点光源直接照度、面光源直接照度以及光通量守恒性能这3个方面，2款软件均具有较高精度；计算大面积漫反射、遇遮挡和不同反射率这3种情况的间接照度时，DIALux evo 8.2计算精度优于ElumTools 2019.07；计算小面积漫反射的间接照度精度时，ElumTools 2019.07计算精度优于DIALux evo 8.2；计算定向透射性能时，这2款软件精度均比较低。进一步分析得出：核心算法是产生误差的主要原因，2款软件信息交换均存在一定缺陷。因此，采用光子映射算法，创建建筑与照明全信息交换接口将成为未来基于BIM技术的室内照明仿真模拟软件的研发方向。